opinion polls and the actual ones

One of the most eagerly awaited elections in the recent past has come to a conclusion throwing up an absolutely unexpected result. Or was it really unexpected?

What we claim as unexpected is purely cased on the opinion and exit polls conducted in the state by the various leading news channels. It is not for the first time that the pollsters have been found wanting. If one looks at the past three to four years ( I do not hav much knowledge of the polls before that) , the opinion polls have been found to be invariably wrong. The worst case of that being when the BJP was routed from power in the 2004 general elections and the Congress was sweeped into power by the Indian voter. Almost every single channel had predicted a thumping victory for the NDA. And if I remember right only one gentleman , Yogendra Yadav ,if I remember his name right, had suggested that the congress had any semblance of chance in his series of articles he had written for The Hindu.

So all these leads one to ponder whether opinion polls are indeed worth their money? Has the Indian voter emerged to be a lot more intelligent than he has ever been made out to be? My answer to the former is no and to the latter is yes. The Indian voter has indeed come a long way to a stage where he is voting on the basis of micro issues, issues that affects his day to day life. The voter has shown that no amount of spin-doctoring in the media will fool him and is not carried away by the campaign style and instead on the substance in the campaign. The elections in Bihar are a very crucial indicator of how the common man is frustrated with the governance being meted out. Though caste has also played a very vital part in the victory alliance, the caste equation has changed. With these elections the Bihar voters have joined the mainstream voters across the nation. So may the politicians be aware of the changing ground realities and do what they are supposed to - Govern properly.